Waiting for the Crash

Dec 29 2025 The Guardian

Why haven’t Trump’s tariffs crashed the US economy?

The US economy has not crashed.

Yet…

Effects on inflation and employment have not been as bad as feared – but could still materialise with full force in 2026

You should read the whole piece, but here the four main points:

First, if you still remember, there was a government shutdown in the US in October, and the statistics are not as reliable as they usually are. So, both inflation and unemployment may be higher than what the statistics show at the moment.

Second, the tariffs are high, but as of yet, not all tariffs are fully in effect, some have been rolled back, and there are also exceptions for some countries.

Third, as soon as Trump was elected, companies started importing a lot of goods to fill up their stocks before the tariffs would hit. They have been selling these stocks and not raising prices.

And fourth, importers have in effect continued absorbing the higher costs and not passing them to the consumers. But this erodes the profit margins, and companies will not be doing this forever.

So, 2025 was better than expected, 2026 could be way worse.

2025 The Year of War

Dec 29 2025 BBC

John Simpson: 'I've reported on 40 wars but I've never seen a year like 2025'

End of year articles always tend to have this look-back and look-forward comparison, and in this one by BBC’s John Simpson, both back and forward look pretty bad.

Can’t do anything about the past, and rather than just hoping that the future will be better, we all should do something to make sure it will be better. It might feel futile, but every little bit helps.

From the European point of view, the outlook could scarcely be more gloomy.

If you thought World War Three would be a shooting-match with nuclear weapons, think again. It's much more likely to be a collection of diplomatic and military manoeuvres, which will see autocracy flourish.

American Reckoning

Dec 29 2025 Robert Reich in The Guardian

Americans are waking up. A grand reckoning awaits us

Sometimes a nation needs a nightmare before it can fully awaken to long-simmering crises.

For 40 years, a narrow economic elite has been siphoning off ever more wealth and power.

… the US went off the rails: deregulation, privatization, free trade, wild gambling by Wall Street, union-busting, monopolization, record levels of inequality, stagnant wages for most, staggering wealth for a few, big money taking over our politics.

Corporate profits became more important than good jobs and good wages for all, stock buy-backs and the wellbeing of investors more important than the common good.

Trump has precipitated a long-overdue reckoning.

That reckoning has revealed the rot.

Not a rosy picture for an end-of-year piece, but at least the piece ends with:

I’d like to believe that the horrific darkness of this past year is a necessary prelude to a brighter and saner future

Putin - Ukraine - Trump

Dec 7 2025 The Guardian

Putin should have accepted Trump’s deal. Now Russia’s collapsing economy could lead to his downfall

People in Britain who think they are governed by fools should take a closer look at the Russian and US presidents. Vladimir Putin is systematically ruining his country. His war of choice in Ukraine is an economic, financial, geopolitical and human calamity for Russia that worsens by the day. For his own murky reasons, Donald Trump, another national menace, offered him a lifeline last week. Yet Putin spurned it. These two fools deserve each other.

Statistics during a war will always be estimates and the numbers will be difficult to verify, but below is one calculation of Russian losses as of today. This is from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and even if this calculation is off by 50%, the numbers are alarmingly high. The human casualty number alone is staggering, and will create societal issues in the future.

07.12.2025
Tanks — 11,401 (+3)
Armored fighting vehicle — 23,688
Artillery systems — 34,907 (+33)
MLRS — 1,562 (+2)
Anti-aircraft warfare — 1,253
Planes — 431
Helicopters — 347
UAV — 87,927 (+540)
Cruise missiles — 4,054 (+30)
Ships (boats) — 28
Submarines — 1
Cars and cisterns — 69,135 (+98)
Special equipment — 4,015
Military personnel — aprx. 1,180,870 people (+1,080)

The +1,080 in the personnel number, is the added casualties since yesterday. This is actually a lower number than in any of the previous six days, and the seventh was +1,060. So, just during these past seven days the total casualties add up to over 8,000. And for 2025; more than 280,000 killed or injured in the first eight months.

If that is not serious enough, below is a quote from the piece about economic issues facing Russians.

After two years of growth artificially fuelled by higher defence spending, Russia’s oil and gas income, representing up to 50% of state revenue, is down 27% year-on-year, and recession looms. Inflation is up, at 8%; interest rates top 16%. The budget deficit is rising, more than half of Russia’s liquid sovereign wealth fund has been squandered since 2022, state monopolies face huge debts, foreign investment has plunged, import costs of strategic goods have risen by 122%, and consumer taxes are soaring, all to fund Putin’s war. Russians must even pay more to drown their sorrows: the price of vodka is up 5%.

The West’s Last Chance

Dec 2 2025 Foreign Affairs

The West’s Last Chance

An article by Alexander Stubb, the President of Finland.

International institutions and norms provide the framework for global cooperation. They need to be updated and reformed to better reflect the growing economic and political power of the global South and the global East. Western leaders have long talked about the urgency of fixing multilateral institutions such as the United Nations. Now, we must get it done, starting with rebalancing the power within the UN and other international bodies such as the World Trade Organization, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank. Without such changes, the multilateral system as it exists will crumble. That system is not perfect; it has inherent flaws and can never exactly reflect the world around it. But the alternatives are much worse: spheres of influence, chaos, and disorder.

The West Is Lost

Oct 5 2025 The New York Times

The West Is Lost

By Andreas Reckwitz; a sociologist and the author of a book on loss and modernity. He wrote from Berlin.

From the Enlightenment onward, progress functioned as the secular creed of the West. For centuries our societies were defined by the conviction that the future must outshine the present, just as the present surpassed the past. Such optimistic faith was not merely cultural or institutional but all-encompassing: Everything was going to get better. In this way of thinking, there was no room for loss.

Today, that civilizational belief is under profound threat. Loss has become a pervasive condition of life in Europe and America. It shapes the collective horizon more insistently than at any time since 1945, spilling into the mainstream of political, intellectual and everyday life. The question is no longer whether loss can be avoided but whether societies whose imagination is bound to “better” and “more” can learn to endure “less” and “worse.” How that question is answered will shape the trajectory of the 21st century.

*****

To face truth with open eyes, to accept fragility and to incorporate loss into the democratic imagination could, in fact, be the precondition of its vitality. If we once dreamed of abolishing loss, we must now learn how to live with it. Should we succeed, it would mark a step toward maturity. And that could become a deeper form of progress.

Malaria Treatment for Babies

Jul 8 2025 The BBC

First malaria treatment for babies approved for use

There have been malaria treatments for children, but there has been a “treatment gap”. The existing treatments were for older children and not specifically for babies. Babies have been treated with the same medicines, but their liver functions are still developing and their bodies process medicines differently. So, it may not be safe.

Novartis has now developed a treatment aimed specifically at babies, and that may prevent the death of thousands of children.

In 2023 - the year for which the most recent figures are available - malaria was linked to around 597,000 deaths.

Almost all of the deaths were in Africa, and around three quarters of them were children under five years old.

Housing Prices

Jul 7 2025 The Guardian

Across Europe, the financial sector has pushed up house prices. It’s a political timebomb

Practically every country in Europe has the same issue, housing costs too much. Rents are too high and home ownership is out of reach for most people.

The Guardian piece focuses on the financial sector ownership and control of property. Financial institutions obviously focus on making a profit, that is their function. They are in the property business because it is a good business to be in, not because they want to own property per se.

If you are in the property market, and your job is to focus on profit, you obviously want to keep pushing up prices, but you also do not want to build more housing, since that would lower the prices and thus lower your profits.

I agree, the financial sector ownership is a problem, but they did not create the market, they just operate in it, doing exactly what they are supposed to be doing. If a system is bad, it is not the operator’s fault if they use the system as it was designed to be used.

The previous sentence is slightly inaccurate, the system was not intelligently designed or actively created. Far from it, the property market ended up being what it is, because of the inaction of the governments.

And not just whatever government is in power in your country at the moment, every government in power during at least the past 20 years shares the blame.

If politicians wanted to solve this crisis, they would build a lot more affordable housing. More housing means lower rents and easier paths to home ownership, both of which would push all prices down. Eventually the profits would fall, and the financial sector would migrate to some other more profitable market.

A few quotes from the piece, emphasis is mine.

In 2023, $1.7tn of global real estate was managed by institutional investors such as private equity firms, insurance companies, hedge funds, banks and pension funds, up from $385bn in 2008. Spurred by loose monetary policy, these actors consider Europe’s housing a particularly lucrative and secure “asset class”. Purchases of residential property in the euro area by institutional investors tripled over the past decade.

The scale of institutional ownership in certain places is staggering. In Ireland, nearly half of all units delivered since 2017 were purchased by investment funds. Across Sweden, the share of private rental apartments with institutional investors as landlords has swelled to 24%. In Berlin, €40bn of housing assets are now in institutional portfolios, 10% of the total housing stock. In the four largest Dutch cities, a quarter of homes for sale in recent years were purchased by investors. Even in Vienna, a city widely heralded for its vast, subsidised housing stock, institutional players are now invested in every 10th housing unit and 42% of new private rental homes.

*****

If I was a politician, I would do something about this.

Money for the Rich

Jul 3 2025 Pete Buttigieg on Substack

Pete Buttigieg really knows how to distill the message to something clear and simple. The world needs more leaders like him.

Today proves that Republicans were serious about one promise: to cut taxes for the wealthy. All the rest was bullshit.

15 Problems with ‘OBBBA’

Jul 2 2025 The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget crfb.org

A lot of interesting information in this piece, I’ll just list the 15 points below. Link to the piece is at the bottom.

1. Adds $4.1 trillion to the debt through 2034

2. Would add $5.5 trillion to the debt if made permanent

3. Violates the House reconciliation framework by $600 billion

4. Accelerates Social Security and Medicare insolvency to 2032

5. Is littered with special interest giveaways and new tax and spending entitlements

6. Relies on numerous budget gimmicks

7. Undermines future budget enforcement

8. Increases future spending if made permanent

9. Makes the tax code more complicated and less fair

10. Explodes interest costs to nearly $2 trillion per year

11. Worsens deficits by even more using dynamic scoring

12. Increases the debt limit by $5 trillion in exchange for deficit increases

13. Makes the 3% of GDP deficit goal much harder to achieve

14. Uses up key offsets needed for debt reduction

15. Poisons the environment for bipartisan budget and trust fund deals

Good luck with the next election…

15 Major Problems with the Senate Reconciliation Bill

Twelve days in Gaza

Jul 1 2025 The Guardian

Twelve days in Gaza: what happened while the world looked away?

Afghanistan was pushed out of our news by the Ukraine war, Ukraine was pushed out for a while by Gaza, and Gaza was pushed out by the Israeli and US bombing Iran.

In our 24/7 news cycle, there will always be a new crisis to focus on, we should remember that problems do not disappear just because they are not in the news anymore.

This piece is about what happened in Gaza when we were focused on the Iran bombings. Below a short version:

*****

14 June, the second day of the Israel-Iran conflict, at least 20 Palestinians were killed.

16 June, at least 37 people killed

17 June, at least 59 Palestinians killed and hundreds more injured

18 June, central Gaza death toll 11, and at least 24 killed in airstrikes

19 June, 15 killed in central Gaza, elsewhere, about 60 killed in airstrikes

20 June, at least 24 killed

24 June, 25 Palestinians killed

New Normal

Jun 20 2025 The New York Times

The Nation Encourages Political Violence by Allowing It to Seem Normal

Before the next act of political violence seizes our attention, let us pause and preserve in memory Melissa Hortman, a member of the Minnesota State Legislature, and her husband, Mark. The couple became the latest casualties of our nihilistic politics on Saturday after a gunman killed them in their home.

The new culture of political violence is being reinforced. When we move on too quickly from an attack against our society’s organizing ideas, we normalize it. The next shooter, the next extremist, sees a society that accepts violence. Forgetting is dangerous. It encourages repetition.

The Reign of Error

Jun 6 2025 The Washington Post

This is an opinion piece by Dana Milbank, about the current US administration’s achievements so far.

I usually add some sarcastic comments into my posts about the things I write about, in most cases it is serious reporting and I think a bit of sarcasm brings the point out better.

But, I have to admit, this piece really does not need any more sarcasm, so I’ll let you get on with it.

They are not good at this

Forever War

May 25 2025 The Guardian

Trump refuses to accept that for Netanyahu and Putin forever war is the only option

There is too much to lose in Ukraine and Gaza, for peace negotiations to succeed.

Netanyahu and his far-right cronies deny Palestinians the right to an independent state – the exact same right asserted by Israel’s founders. Likewise, Putin rejects the reality of Ukraine as a sovereign country….

And would-be peacemakers, especially the US president, Donald Trump, fail to grasp another visceral similarity: neither actually wants lasting peace. Forever war is their preferred option, their default setting. They depend for their survival on violence. If the fighting stops, they know they face a potentially ruinous reckoning.

What will people say in Rostov-on-Don, Omsk or Nizhny Novgorod when thousands of returning veterans let on what really happened at the front? How long may Putin last when Russia’s elites begin to total up the mind-boggling economic and social cost of his failed gamble? When peace comes, Netanyahu will face elections – and probable defeat. Jail time for alleged bribery and corruption could follow. The international criminal court will demand their surrender. Both could be down and out.

That’s why they fear peace.

Press Freedom Day

May 3 2025 Unesco’s World Press Freedom Day

I am not a journalist, never been one, and probably never will be, I just write a blog. But I know that in a world filled with misinformation, disinformation, and malinformation, the work journalists do all over the world is invaluable.

Today is World Press Freedom Day, but as it says in an opinion piece in The Guardian “There is a war on journalists raging across the world.”

Here is the link to the piece, and below a few quotes. There is a war on journalists raging around the world: let their voices be heard

Last year, the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) recorded the highest number of media workers killed since it began collecting data three decades ago.

According to that data, at least 124 journalists and media workers were killed in 2024 – nearly two-thirds of them Palestinians killed by Israeli forces in Gaza and the West Bank.

Journalists were also killed while doing their jobs in Sudan, Pakistan, Mexico, Syria, Myanmar, Iraq and Haiti. Hundreds more were detained and imprisoned elsewhere, while others were harassed, assaulted and faced relentless threats and abuse online, as well as in their communities and places of work.

Attacks on press freedom and independent news outlets by governments and authoritarian regimes from Russia to Turkey to Belarus are also rising, along with the tsunami of misinformation that is being disseminated on social media and the internet.

In the US, Donald Trump labelled journalists the “enemies of the people” in his first term, and is now waging lawsuits against leading news organisations and ordering federal investigations against others.

*****

The Guardian and its partners launched the Viktoriia project this week. “The Viktoriia project was formed to investigate the disappearance of Viktoriia Roshchyna, a 27-year-old Ukrainian journalist, and expose how Russia is systematically detaining and torturing an estimated 16,000 Ukrainian civilians.”

The following pieces from the project are not easy to read, but they should be read widely.

April 29 2025
‘Numerous signs of torture’: a Ukrainian journalist’s detention and death in Russian prison

April 30 2025
Inside Taganrog: beatings, electrocution and starvation at prison where Ukrainians were tortured

May 1 2025
Release of Ukrainian prisoners in Russia key to any peace deal, rights groups say

Uprising in America?

Apr 18 2025 The New York TImes

What’s Happening Is Not Normal. America Needs an Uprising That Is Not Normal.

Opinion piece by David Brooks, on defending institutions from trumpism.

In the beginning there was agony. Under the empires of old, the strong did what they willed and the weak suffered what they must.

But over the centuries, people built the sinews of civilization: Constitutions to restrain power, international alliances to promote peace, legal systems to peacefully settle disputes, scientific institutions to cure disease, news outlets to advance public understanding, charitable organizations to ease suffering, businesses to build wealth and spread prosperity, and universities to preserve, transmit and advance the glories of our way of life. These institutions make our lives sweet, loving and creative, rather than nasty, brutish and short.

…

Trump is shackling the greatest institutions in American life. We have nothing to lose but our chains.

If You Can’t Get Even, Get Mean

Apr 13 2025 The Guardian

George Monbiot’s opinion piece in The Guardian.

Rightwing populists will keep winning until we grasp this truth about human nature

As the headline says, Monbiot talks about right-wing populists, and the effect of rising inequality, which fuels resentment against the establishment.

I would argue that this is true for any populist, regardless of their political persuasion, be it right-wing or left-wing, and that this is especially true of any really revolutionary movement. Just look at any revolution in human history, the French and the Russian being prime examples. If you can’t get even, get mean, and totally destroy the old order.

We all know how those revolutions ended, and this piece is a good reminder for the people in power to actually do something about inequality, not just talk about it.

*****

And I should add that I am not endorsing left-wing or right-wing politics with my next comments. What I would like to see is long term responsible and strategic politics for the good of the society.

Left-wing politics has equality in its DNA, so it is often assumed that right-wing politics is against it. But responsible, strategic and long term focused right-wing politics will promote equality and will try to raise the living standards for everyone.

It is a no-brainer; commerce likes stability and predictability, and an equal and well functioning society will provide that. An equal society, which has a large middle class, and a good social safety net, will be a good and safe place to invest in. Investments create jobs and steady jobs mean higher living standards, and higher living standards promote equality and thus societal stability, which is good for investments. A positive cycle and a classic win-win-win situation.

Probably do not need to remind anyone reading this blog, that business in general does not like uncertainty and unpredictability, they are very bad for business. And from a long term point of view, one of the worst options is a revolution.

A good social safety net takes care of the less fortunate, and prevents economic anxiety turning into resentment and division. By promoting trust in government, a functioning safety net basically takes away the rationale from populists politicians.

All responsible and sensible politicians will promote equality and a stable society, the differences are mainly in the how to do this, not if we should do this.

*****

Obviously, as we all know, not all politicians are responsible or sensible, there are some in powerful positions, who could be described as toxic populists.

We do not live in a perfect world, yet. But that does not mean we shouldn’t try to make this world a better place to live in.

How to be a Leader

Apr 13 2025 The New York Times

Stanley McChrystal on fear, anxiety, division and hatred, and how to prevent societies from crumbling.

Be Not Afraid

We live in a world of instability — jobs vanish, institutions falter, narratives shift by the hour. Every word we say, every action we take, is scrutinized, recorded and judged. The threat of digital mobs and public shaming doesn’t protect us; it paralyzes us. It breeds hesitation, then withdrawal, then division.

Fear isolates. It pushes us into ideological bunkers, surrounding us only with those who think like us. And when fear festers, it mutates. What begins as anxiety turns into resentment. Resentment hardens into hatred. Hatred strips away our ability to see others as people. The result is a society riven by suspicion and hostility.